Comparison of Percentages involving the VPR Math Formula

There are actually three (3) different methods of calculating the Voter Participation Rate (VPR), and they are as following:

  1. The Total Votes cast in an election divided by the Total Population to derive a Percentage (Column of “X and Y” below)
  2. The Sum of the Parts – the Republican VPR + the Democrat VPR + 3 rd Party/“Other” VPR to derive a Percentage (Columns of “A”, “B”, and “C” below)
  3. The “Get-Out-the-Vote” Calculation, involving the additional “Eligible Voters” and “Voter Registrations” numbers in order to derive a Percentage (Columns “D”, “E”, and “F” below)

Using North Carolina and the 2020 Presidential General Election as an example, the VPR Math Formula looks like the following:

The VPR Math Formula

Once this is done, do it again for each election cycle going back until you reach a cycle that is believed to be Free and Fair. And then simply compare the Margins and Percentages for each of the columns to determine if the present election is believed to be Free and Fair. With the NC Example below, note how the first column of the Total VPR Percentage – “(X) and (Y)” and both columns of “E” and “F” have changed over time.

This is a rather tedious and time consuming process, especially needing to calculate the “Total Eligible Voter %” and gathering up the number of voter registrations for a state and per election cycle. At this time, we have only done the complete VPR Math Formula for the state of North Carolina; and it looks like the following:

Historical NC Number used in the VPR Math Formula for Presidential General Elections, from 2000 to 2020

It used to be that absentee ballots were used exclusively by people who could not get to the polls on Election Day because of illness, disability, or travel; but now, it is used mostly for convenience. This all began to change in North Carolina with laws enacted starting in 1977; and the issue has been evolving with new laws ever since.
In 2007, the General Assembly enacted legislation allowing an individual to come to a one-stop site and, at the same time, fill out an application to register to vote and cast an absentee ballot at the one-stop site. Could this be the starting point and reason why “Margins” between the two parties began to evaporate in the 2008 General Election?

The portion of the VPR Math Formula that represents “X = Y = D x E x F” is part of the copyright filed for Billy Parker, by Attorney Larry Coats, Cary, NC.

Note: When data was compiled for this chart, the US Census was reporting the population in North Carolina for 2020 as being 10,600,823. Later, this figure was revised downward to 10,439,388

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