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California Regression Analysis Election Charts and Data

VPR and Predicted VPR Charts – Without Overlays

(Linear Regression up to 2000, with projection to 2020)

VPR and Predicted VPR Charts – With Overlays

(Linear Regression up to 2000, with projection to 2020)


Data Used

The data used for calculating both the VPR and the Predicted VPR, based on Official U.S. Government data, can be found below. From 2000 to 2020, the number of ballots cast in California has increased by 59.6%, but the population during this same period increased by only 16.7%. – a 3.6 Times increase in ballots versus population.

Total VPR for CA

A negative decline trend for the total VPR.  Most election results fall within the Tolerance Bounds up through the year of 2004.

Outlier #1 and #2 happened in 2008 and 2012 with the election of Obama. With the election of the “First Black President,” these two outliers can be explained by California’s large minority populations, mainly Latina and some Black. There is, however, no easy explanation for Outlier #3 in 2016, involving Clinton and Trump.  And even more baffling is the huge Outlier #4 involving the election of Biden in 2020. This opens the door for the possibility of nefarious activities by one or both of the two political parties for explanation. Also note the Total “Out-of-Line” vote is rather significant for the 2020 cycle, with the amount being 6.3 Million.

Both the Republican and Democrat VPR for CA

The long-term trend for both political parties has been declining over time. There is, however, a breakout on the upside, for the Democrats starting in 2000.

As for individual parties, Republicans had strong showings in 1952 with Eisenhower, in 1972 with Nixon, with Reagan in 1984, and with Trump in 2020; but they had very weak showings with Dewey in 1948, with Goldwater in 1964, and with Bush Sr. in 1992. The Democrats did exceptionally well with LBJ in 1964 but had a poor showing with Carter in 1980. There was an uptrend with Kerry in 2004, and a greater outbreak with Obama in both 2008 and 2012. Again with Obama being the “First Black President,” this offers explanation for these two outliers. There is little explanation, however, for Hillary Clinton being such a huge outlier in 2016. And even more baffling is Biden’s performance in 2020.  Note the 6.2 Million “Out-of-Line” votes by the Democrats in that election. 

3rd Party/Other VPR for CA

Very often this category of votes represents 1% or less, close to zero, of the total population. But in 1992, Ross Perot garnered the support of 7.8% of the population in California. And the people of the Golden State gave support of around 3% - 4% to the 3rd party candidate in 1968, 1980, and 1996. A significant support for a 3rd party candidate(s) can often “throw” an election on the national level – where one party wins the popular vote and the other wins the Electoral College.

Because the 3rd Party vote is usually at or very close to zero, the Data for this section is Insufficient for Linear Regression Analysis.

Download California Regression Analysis Data

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